BTC Cracks $68,000 and You May Want to Look at Kalshi to Predict Bitcoin’s Next Move Before Binance Does
Featured , Aug 19, 2026, BY Daragh Thomas

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traders have traditionally looked to exchanges such as Binance for the fastest read on where the cryptocurrency is heading. New research suggests that relationship may be starting to flip. The high-frequency trading team at Synth, a financial forecasting firm, analyzed second-by-second trades since January and found that moves in Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin contracts increasingly predict what Binance does next, according to research published Tuesday. The correlation between a preceding Kalshi move and Binance’s subsequent 0-to-2-second move rose from 0.036 in January to 0.145 in June and 0.173 in August. The correlation remains modest in absolute terms. What…

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