Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) analyst Caleb Franzen, who turned bearish when the token fell below $97,000 last November, says he’s bullish again and sees targets as high as $205,000.
Why Franzen Flipped Bullish
Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, told Milk Road Crypto Wednesday that two signals changed his view in late August.
Bitcoin broke decisively above its 200-day moving average cloud around Aug. 21, a move he called structurally different from prior failed attempts in May and January.
The same week, Bitcoin posted a weekly candle up more than 20%, a momentum signal Franzen says has historically preceded strong future returns.
Franzen also pointed to a rarer signal: Bitcoin’s 21-day EMA crossing above its 200-day EMA, something that’s happened only eight times since 2020.
Historically, that crossover has produced an average 3-month return of 33%, a 6-month return of 43.4%, and a 1-year return of 153%, based on Franzen’s research.
Where Franzen Sees Support and Resistance
Franzen said Bitcoin needs to hold above its 200-day moving average cloud, currently between $71,730 and $75,135, to keep the bullish thesis intact.
A close below $71,000 would invalidate his targets entirely.
On the upside, Franzen’s price targets range from $142,000 to $205,000, with $126,000 as the first major milestone.
He’s layering in buys at key technical levels:
- $83,000 (21-day EMA): already filled
- $79,000 (55-day EMA): planned if Bitcoin pulls back further
Why He’s Staying Cautious on Altcoins
Franzen said he’s not actively rotating into altcoins despite strength in names like Chainlink (CRYPTO: LINK), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) and BNB (CRYPTO: BNB).
He pointed to the last cycle, when Bitcoin strength didn’t guarantee altcoin gains, as a reason to stay patient.
On Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) specifically, he’s watching a reclaim of the $2,126 to $2,295 range as a potential buy zone, with the same 200-day cloud strategy he applies to Bitcoin.
Why Macro Data Still Supports Higher Prices
Franzen focuses on price over economic data, but flagged the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index showing data beating expectations in recent months.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects 3.5% real GDP growth for Q3, down from an earlier 5% estimate but still strong.
That growth backdrop supports rising bond yields and continued risk appetite, both of which favor Bitcoin and equities, according to Franzen.
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