XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) could drop another 50% as three regulatory catalysts vanish and ETF inflows dry up, according to analysis published by CryptoQuant.
Why The $0.50 Target Is Still On The Table
CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA wrote in a bearish analysis that XRP’s decline toward $1 is not just a technical breakdown but a shift in market structure.
Whale to Exchange Flow on Binance currently reads just 77, down roughly 39% and far below the massive spikes seen during the sharp price moves of 2025 and early 2026. That means whales are not the ones driving this drop.
The real problem is the absence of buyers. XRP has consistently made lower levels from its peak near $3.39, and while the major selling wave appears mostly done, no strong new demand has stepped in to replace it.
The analyst notes that $0.52 marks the Fibonacci 1.272 extension level and becomes the next meaningful target if $1 fails to hold on a sustained basis.
What Are XRP Whales Doing Right Now?
Analyst Ali Charts flagged on X that whales bought over 72 million XRP in the past 24 hours, calling the accumulation notable given the weak price environment.
The divergence between large-holder buying and price weakness is one of the more interesting setups in the market right now.
Why Three Regulatory Tailwinds Just Disappeared
Three catalysts the market had been treating as near-term support for XRP were removed in quick succession, according to CoinDesk.
The SEC delayed its innovation exemption for tokenized securities after facing pushback from both the White House and Wall Street over its legal foundation.
The same day, the agency cancelled its planned open meeting on Reg Crypto, the proposed fundraising framework for token projects, with no rescheduled date.
The Clarity Act, meanwhile, remains stalled in the Senate with no vote timeline in sight.
What Are XRP ETF Flows Showing?
XRP spot ETF inflows have been compressing steadily, with weekly flows running $14.86 million, $1.01 million, and $2.25 million through four sessions this week, according to SoSoValue data.
The entire current week’s inflow came from Bitwise’s XRP (NYSE:XRP) product alone, with Franklin, Canary, 21Shares, and Grayscale all recording zero flow.
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